The global air cargo market has entered the second half of 2026 fundamentally different from what the industry expected six months ago. Xeneta, one of the industry’s leading freight rate intelligence platforms, has just released its Mid-Year Air Freight Outlook Update — and the numbers tell a story every Israeli shipper should read carefully.

The reversal in one line: rates that were supposed to fall 5–10% this year are now expected to rise 5–15%.

What changed

The escalation of the Middle East conflict on February 28, 2026 removed roughly 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight. Six months later, that capacity has not fully returned. Global supply growth in H1 2026 was just 1% — barely half of what was forecast. Meanwhile, demand kept growing at 4% (vs. the 2–3% expected), pushing global spot rates up around 40% year-on-year in May.

Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer summed up the market with a memorable line: “On 27 February I would have bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before I put money on air rates jumping 40%. Yet that is what happened.”

Three forces shaping H2

1. Supply chain shock still absorbing. The 59-day airspace closure through the region, followed by the phased return of foreign carriers, permanently changed the routing math for cargo moving to and from Israel. Rates have plateaued but are not falling.

2. China e-commerce cooling. The EU removed its €150 de minimis import threshold on July 1, replacing it with a €3 per-item duty (with an additional €2 handling fee coming in November). Chinese low-value e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May — the sixth consecutive monthly decline.

3. AI-driven freight booming. Transpacific lanes are being fed by an explosion of AI hardware, semiconductor and high-tech shipments. Load factors on dedicated freighters remain above 90%.

What this means for Israel

For Israeli shippers and forwarders, three practical realities apply:

• Rate volatility is the new normal. Locking in Q3 and Q4 capacity commitments now — where possible — will price meaningfully better than waiting until seasonal peaks tighten the market further.
• Routing flexibility beats routing familiarity. Carriers that maintained network discipline through H1 disruption are the ones with allocations to offer. GSAs with multi-carrier options on the same lane provide real optionality.
• Watch the geopolitical calendar. Xeneta specifically warned that H2 could bring further shocks: “If Dubai Airport can be closed by rockets, what else is possible?” Contingency planning matters more than it did a year ago.

WTA Cargo perspective

As Israel’s leading air cargo GSA since 2001, we have spent H1 2026 keeping cargo moving through every available routing — during the airspace closure, during the phased carrier return, and now through a market where rates are structurally higher than anyone expected six months ago.

For shippers mapping out Q3 and Q4 capacity, this is the moment to lock in conversations. Our team represents an exclusive portfolio of carriers on the routes that matter — Cathay Cargo via HKG, Virgin Atlantic via LHR, Air Baltic to RIX, China Airlines to TPE, Air Seychelles to SEZ, and more.

📧 sales@wta.co.il  |  📞 +972-3-973-1501